Monday, May 10, 2004

Kerry's Conundrum

A recent Rasmussen Poll revealed that 64% of voters believe that American society is generally fair and decent. Additionally, 62% believe the world would be a better place if other countries became more like the United States. The really interesting demographic, however, is how these numbers break down by ideology:
Among Bush voters, 83% say that American society is generally fair and decent. Just 7% say it is basically unfair and discriminatory.

While Bush voters are united behind this perception, Kerry voters are divided - 46% say fair and decent while 37% say unfair and discriminatory.

81% of Bush voters also believe the world would be better if other nations were more like the United States. This view is shared by just 48% of Kerry voters.

From an ideological perspective, 74% of conservatives say the world would be better if other nations were more like ours. Just 15% of conservatives believe it would be worse.

However, among self-identified liberals, the numbers are 49% better and 37% worse. A plurality of those who say they are very liberal believe the world would be in worse shape if other nations were more like ours.

Moderate voters, by a 3-to-1 margin think that having other nations more like us would create a better world.
Michael Barone, writing in U.S. News and World Report notes the difficulties this imposes on Kerry. How can he rally his base, when so many have a negative view of their country? This also helps explain why Howard Dean's unrelenting negativity was greeted with so much enthusiasm: nearly 40 percent of Democratic supporters have a bad view of not only George Bush, but of America in general.

Finally, consider this: if John Kerry attempts to mount a campaign with a positive vision of America, he will alienate close to 40% of his base.

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